Scotsman
07/02/2010

THERE were four major problems at the heart of what happened with the swine flu episode.
First, the world was unnecessarily frightened witless by claims made by experts that it could killed between two and 7.5 million people, 65,000 in London. This caused panic among the public for what in the end was a mild case of flu.

People were made to expect something akin to the crisis of 1918 which killed millions when in reality it was less than normal seasonal flu.

It was much closer to the pandemics of 1957, 1968 and 1977 which were all mild.

In Britain there were 500 deaths of people who had the flu, just maybe 150 of those because of it. That is lower than the seasonal flu rate of around 1,200 deaths.

The problem was that the World Health Organisation changed its definition of a pandemic from a threat to be likely to cause a tremendous number of deaths to one that was considered to be “severe or mild” in its threat, which is inexplicable.

The result was that billions of pounds were spent on vaccines, 80 per cent of which will not be used, which was an appalling waste of money.

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Courtenay Bartholomew
Trinidad and Tobago Express
06/16/10

Close to over two centuries ago, the poet Lord Byron wrote: ’Of all the horrid, hideous notes of woe/ Sadder than owl-songs or the midnight blast/ Is that portentous phrase ’I told you so.’’ Look, to misquote the great bards is anathema to me and so, I had to check to make sure that I quoted him correctly as I do not always remember their exact sayings. That is for people like Sir Ellis Clarke and his elephantoid memory. However, I must crave Byron’s indulgence (just as most people have forgiven his many dalliances) for although I am fast becoming proud of my humility, I cannot resist the temptation to say: ’I told you so.’

Rema Nagarajan
The Times of India
06/05/2010

In a strong indictment of the World Health Organization, a report prepared for the Council of Europe has said WHO wasted large sums of public money by raising unjustified fears of ‘‘a pandemic that never really was’’ and expressed concern over the influence of the pharmaceutical industry on the decisions taken by it regarding the H1N1 virus outbreak.

The report of the social, health and family affairs committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), made public on Friday in Paris, identified what it called ‘‘grave shortcomings’’ in transparency of decision-making at WHO.

It is estimated that around $18 billion was spent on the H1N1 pandemic across the world.

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Maulshree Seth
Indian Express
04/16/2010

In a significant study which may force India and a few other countries to change polio eradication strategy, experts from Britain, India and the WHO have found that even vaccinated children in India play a role in transmitting wild polio virus.

So far, health agencies — including Global polio eradication initiative — had been advocating the use of Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) instead of the inactivated vaccine. The OPV was believed to induce gut immunity ¿ meaning a vaccinated child does not excrete the virus, through which the disease spreads.

But the study — conducted by experts from the Imperial College London, National Polio Surveillance Project, and Global Polio Eradication Initiative, project of WHO — points at the potential of OPV-vaccinated children in transmission of wild virus as well.

The study was conducted on around 14,000 stool samples collected between 2003 and 2008 from healthy children in contact with suspected cases of acute flaccid paralysis, mostly in UP and Bihar. Wild poliovirus was isolated from around 12 per cent of healthy children in direct contact with confirmed polio cases.

The study concluded: “Although OPV is protective against infection with poliovirus, the majority of healthy contacts who excreted wild-type poliovirus were well vaccinated¿ It is clear that OPV is protective against asymptomatic infection with wild poliovirus in India, but that this protection is incomplete.”

The study, called “Asymptomatic Wild-Type Poliovirus Infection in India among Children with Previous Oral Poliovirus Vaccination” has been recently published in the electronic version of Journal of Infectious Diseases, whose printed version is expected on May 15.

Four countries including India, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria are reporting persistent poliovirus transmission despite various efforts and experts have admitted that Northern India is a unique case in eradication efforts.

Dr VM Vashishtha, the convenor of the Polio Eradication Committee of the Indian Academy of Pediatrics, said: “It is clear now that immunity provided with OPV is imperfect even in case of herd immunity concept, for which OPV was advocated. All we suggest is, if by the end of this year, persistent transmission continues, we should be ready with a Plan B because we cannot allow things to go on.”

In an e-mail, Dr Hamid Jafari, an investigator of the study and Project Manager of National Polio Surveillance Programme of India did not agree that there is an urgent need to change the focus of India’s vaccination programme. “Well vaccinated children (6 or more OPV doses) in close contact with confirmed polio cases, were much less likely to get infected with wild poliovirus compared to the under-vaccinated (0-2 doses),” he wrote , indicating that repeated vaccination with OPV still needs to be undertaken.

Four countries including India, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nigeria are reporting persistent poliovirus transmission despite various efforts and experts have admitted that Northern India is a unique case in eradication efforts.

Dr VM Vashishtha, the convenor of the Polio Eradication Committee of the Indian Academy of Pediatrics, said: “It is clear now that immunity provided with OPV is imperfect even in case of herd immunity concept, for which OPV was advocated. All we suggest is, if by the end of this year, persistent transmission continues, we should be ready with a Plan B because we cannot allow things to go on.”

In an e-mail, Dr Hamid Jafari, an investigator of the study and Project Manager of National Polio Surveillance Programme of India did not agree that there is an urgent need to change the focus of India’s vaccination programme. “Well vaccinated children (6 or more OPV doses) in close contact with confirmed polio cases, were much less likely to get infected with wild poliovirus compared to the under-vaccinated (0-2 doses),” he wrote , indicating that repeated vaccination with OPV still needs to be undertaken.